Bitcoin fell 0.37% from Aug. 25 to Sept. 1 to US$26,012 as of 5 p.m. Friday in Hong Kong. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has been trading below US$30,000 since Aug. 9, according to CoinMarketCap data. Ether, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 0.59% over the week to US$1,645.
This week started with positive news for crypto investors, after a U.S. court ruled in favor of Grayscale on Tuesday, reversing the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) earlier refusal to allow the company’s Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to be converted into a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Over US$80 million worth of Bitcoin short positions were liquidated within an hour after Grayscale’s favorable ruling. Bitcoin rose to a two-week high of US$27,322 on Thursday, two days after the decision, but remained under the US$28,000 support level.
“The SEC losing both the Ripple and the Grayscale cases has provided the market with optimism that a spot ETF could be approved,” Lucas Kiely, the chief investment officer of digital asset platform Yield App, told Forkast.
“While it is likely that a Bitcoin ETF will eventually emerge in the U.S., the Grayscale news won’t break Bitcoin out of a current wedge pattern that dates back to the start of 2023.”
Mike Ermolaev, founder of blockchain PR firm Outset PR and the author of the interview series ‘Crypto Opinion with Mike Ermolaev,’ said that Grayscale’s legal victory can provide further regulatory clarity for the crypto industry.
“One of the key reasons why this is a big win is that it sets the stage for increased institutional adoption of crypto, with multiple applications pending from major U.S. asset managers,” wrote Ermolaev.
In other positive news for the crypto space, Pantera Capital, a hedge fund with over US$4.8 billion in assets under management, predicted that Bitcoin would rise to US$35,000 before the 2024 halving and reach US$148,000 in 2025.
Pantera’s prediction could come to fruition, considering that Bitcoin surpassed its previous all-time high in each bullish cycle following the halving, Nilesh Verma, crypto market analyst and founder of India-based Crypto Granth consultancy, told Forkast.
“If the trend follows suit, Bitcoin has the potential to reach anywhere between US$100,000 to US$200,000 by 2025,” wrote Verma.
Adiel Barzel, the co-founder of Crypto Index, agreed that Pantera’s price prediction may play out, despite the recent correction in Bitcoin prices.
“Even if Bitcoin ends 2023 in the current price range, or even slightly lower, I will still be bullish on [Pantera’s] price forecast, because, as mentioned, the significant upward movement is fully expected to begin during 2024 post-halving,” wrote Barzel.
The global crypto market capitalization stood at US$1.05 trillion on Friday at 5 p.m. in Hong Kong, maintaining the same value from a week ago, according to CoinMarketCap data. With a market cap of US$506 billion, Bitcoin represented 48.4% of the market while Ether, valued at US$197 billion, accounted for 18.9%.
Notable movers: TON, MKR
Toncoin (TON), the native cryptocurrency of the Open Network, was this week’s biggest gainer in the top 100, rising 20.91% to US$1.73. The coin started picking up momentum on Tuesday, after the Ton Foundation announced last week that it will send 1 million Ton coins to reward users that locked their coins in Believers.ton, a community-driven fund that aims to make the coin’s tokenomics more decentralized.
Maker DAO’s (MKR) governance token was this week’s second-biggest gainer, rallying 15.33% to US$1,162. The token started picking up pace on Thursday, a day after Maker DAO announced plans to introduce SubDAOs in Korea, which will allow developers to create their own decentralized autonomous organizations that can utilize the liquidity allocation from the Maker Protocol.
Next Week: Can Bitcoin close above US$27,500?
“Bitcoin price needs to conclude above the weekly 200-week moving average at US$27,588 to sustain bullish momentum. Notably, the levels of US$28,500 and US$32,000 will serve as pivotal resistance points, while the robust support of US$25,000 is expected to underpin the market,” wrote Verma, referencing the chart below.
Yield App’s Kiely said that Bitcoin remains in a bearish pattern and it could drop to US$20,000 if prices retrace below the US$25,000 resistance level.
“Bitcoin is still most likely to break down from current levels – the longer Bitcoin trades sideways, the further the probable price decline.”
“While it briefly spiked toward the pivotal US$28,000 level – where the price initially began to break down in mid-August – Bitcoin must trade consistently above US$28,000-28,600 to have a shot at the key US$31,000-32,000 level where a bullish pattern could be re-established,” added Kiely.
Aziz Kenjaev, financial analyst and director of business development at cross-chain liquidity protocol Entangle, also said that Bitcoin will likely see another correction before overcoming the key US$28,155-28,700.
“Based on the Order Book data of Coinglass, Bitcoin has all chances to hit and penetrate the wall at US$28,700, although a small downward [movement] is required to collect pending buy orders which are set at US$26,200-26,500,” said Kenjaev, sharing the below chart.
On the macroeconomic front, investors will be looking forward to speeches from key Federal Reserve members, including a Wednesday speech from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan at the Lubbock-area community listening session and a Thursday speech from U.S. Federal Open Market Committee Member Michelle Bowman at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s 7th annual fintech conference in Philadelphia.